Professor: Trump Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Reelection

Professor: Trump Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Reelection

July 9, 2020   |   by James G. Dalton

A Stony Brook professor’s “Primary Model,” which has accurately predicted five out of six elections since 1996, indicates that President Donald Trump will win the 2020 election.

Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite that his model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning reelection.

He said his model would have predicted the winner of all but two presidential elections that took place in the last 108 years.

“This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced,” he said.

The model was wrong in guessing the winner for President John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and President George W. Bush’s election in 2000. In 2000, Bush won a majority of the electoral college but lost the popular vote.

Norpoth’s model also predicts that Trump will win more electoral votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. The model predicts he will win 362 in November. He won 304 in 2016.

The model determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on their success in early presidential nominating contests. That calculation places Biden at a disadvantage because of losses he suffered during the Democrat Party’s first two presidential nominating contests. He placed fourth in Iowa’s caucus and fifth in the New Hampshire primary.

The only candidate to secure a Democrat nomination for president after losing Iowa and New Hampshire is former President Bill Clinton, according to Mediaite.

Norpoth said his model also ignores public opinion surveys.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

Most surveys indicate Trump is trailing behind Biden. Norpoth said his model predicted Trump’s 2016 victory because it didn’t rely on opinion polls that showed Hillary Clinton leading.

“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.

via newsmax

Recent Comments

  1. cayce h.

    July 9, 2020 @ 2:25 pm

    God, I pray this guy’s right. We don’t need another Democrap in the White House.

    • JoAnn Cooper

      July 10, 2020 @ 12:05 am

      Praying for a landslide (for the White House AND both houses of Congress) like this country has never seen before! May the “silent majority speak loudly in November”

  2. CarlWeidelman

    July 9, 2020 @ 2:39 pm

    A peace of. Cake

  3. Rose K Tshiteya

    July 9, 2020 @ 2:46 pm

    President will win the 20/20 election for sure I believe Biden is Washington swamp, he did nothing in forty-plus years in Washington how the hell he can to handle the job when he has dementia already

  4. Don

    July 9, 2020 @ 2:59 pm

    Ah Men Helmut Norpoth

  5. Raymond

    July 9, 2020 @ 3:40 pm

    I think the smart Americans know Biden’s not fit for the job. Let President Trump do what he did before COVID-19 MAGA.

  6. Mimi Hauptman

    July 9, 2020 @ 4:26 pm

    I hope to Gd he is right. Trump has SAVED us during Covid-19 and if not for the dems and their intent to destroy the economy we would have an economy stronger than ever seen. The Dems were begging for a depression before Covid hit to help them win the election. I hate to say if Trump is not reelected we will lose this country entirely. It will become a socialist dream and our enemies will be loved and our allies destroyed. ( Similarly to Obama but on steroids.) The Dems do NOT care about the American people . They care about their power ONLY and destroying the country we love. Biden cannot run this country, he’s not capable. It will be the “squad” in FULL control. The Democratic individual is so far gone that they don’t care who they vote for…as long as it’s not Trump.May Gd save us . Gd bless America and Gd bless our beloved President.

    • JoAnn Cooper

      July 10, 2020 @ 12:09 am

      Should the LIBTARDS take our country, we can kiss our GREAT U.S.A. Goodby! The “silent majority needs a major victory on ALL levels on gov’t!

  7. vicki

    July 9, 2020 @ 4:50 pm

    We need the Senate to remain red & Congress too this time

  8. ezra

    July 9, 2020 @ 7:17 pm

    Trump MUST win 2020 so that Pence 2024, 2028 is possible. Also I fear if every Republican doesn’t back Trump with every vote and opportunity to convince friends and family that there might never be a free and fair democratic election again in American history. ‘Dementia Joe’ Biden has shifted ground heavily towards the radical left. He has drank the koolaid. After all he said about Bernie Sanders “wild giveaway schemes” and “trying to buy the office of President” he has now been told by his puppet masters to publicly adopt Bernies entire platform almost word for word. Well, nobody need call him corrupt (as Bernie Sanders did in January) because it’s a well established fact. He already has two family members under FBI investigation and the ugly truth is that he was connected to their criminal activities during his time as VP. He will be the subject of real investigations with real illegal activities to his credit, some of which he has openly bragged about in television interviews. (Did he really think he could be that open and remain unscathed by his crimes? He’s further gone than even most Republicans thought!
    But my main point stands true. Biden’s entire campaign rests on tainted ‘polling data’ that has been retracted by even CNN (Commie News Numpties) and wild accusations “Trump, the MOST DANGEROUS president in the history of America” (just to the Democratic Party because even the crazed radicals have to admit that even with rough edges and constant Tweets Trump has done more good for Americans and America then any other president in modern history! Plus Biden’s promise to increase income Taxes to a whopping average of 55%-80% taxes plus wealth penalties, VAT taxes and state income taxes so that he can deplete America’s middle class and wealthy (you know them, they hire the rest of us…as long as they can afford to…) and redistribute it to those who won’t work and believe they should just get a guaranteed income to live on at every tax payers expense. He will remove all incentive to work and corporations will flee to tax haven countries with cheap labor…again.
    Their strategy is to try to overwhelm Trump voters with hopeless insurmountable odds stacked against them to discourage us from voting because it ‘would be pointless to even try’! But that’s all they have. They’ve got a worthless swamp rat candidate they can easily control and empty promises of a “magic ‘green’ economy” that will simply flourish because they want it to!
    And why isn’t he announcing his running mate? Is he frightened that we will smell inexperience and weakness and ‘Palin’ her? Because we all know that his VP will be the actual P because the P candidate (that’s PC) Because the actual PC is frail, demented and has had two strokes already…hmmmm…(SOUNDS legit!?)
    Basically we need Trump to get back out of this COVID hole, get everyone properly exposed so we can build healthy immunities and go back to work and rebuild this country…again. Because if Biden somehow wins in November the economy, dollar value and stock market will give off a loud groan and a screech of disintegrating Jet engine noises as it plummets back to earth and nobody wants that.
    So even if you lose both arms and legs in a horrific accident and you ‘get the COVID and are shipped of to a concentration cammm….er….’Self imposed recovery isolation’ You need to vote if you have to hold the pencil in your teeth while losing respect for both ends of your digestive track and just look for the big ‘R’ after everyone you vote for to take this country away from the crazies!

  9. JoAnn Cooper

    July 10, 2020 @ 12:10 am

    Should the LIBTARDS take our country, we can kiss our GREAT U.S.A. Goodby! The “silent majority” needs a major victory on ALL levels on gov’t!

  10. Jeff

    July 10, 2020 @ 7:05 pm

    Strozk: “Trump should win 100 million to zero”

  11. Daniel C.S. Shin

    July 14, 2020 @ 8:09 pm

    Before the Covid and before the BLM protests, Trump in an easy win of landslide proportions. With Covid 19 and the protests going through the roof, it was going to be close. Now, with all the idiocy of the left and all the murders and lawlessness, Trump is back in the saddle. Landslide win in 2020. Trump will wipe the floor with Biden in the 3 debates. Biden is a few steps from senility. Biden will fumble his words again. Trump will Make America Great Again. All in baby!

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